Suspicion about 6.7pc growth’s implementation

Residential Correspondent :

Development thinkers have expressed serious doubts about the attainment of the economic growth at 6.7 per cent projected by the finance minister in the proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year.
At a post-budget discussion on Sunday, they said the growth in gross domestic product stagnated in recent years and had been hovering at around 5.5 per cent – a rate which, economic pundits believe, would not ensure poverty reduction at an optimum pace.
‘There are uncertainties in growth attainment… also the economy has been stagnated at over 5 per cent rate,’ development economist Hossain Zillur Rahman said, terming two growth projections at 5.5 and 6 per cent for the current fiscal ‘controversial and meaningless’.
Behind the slower growth, as he identified, there are three factors – inefficient bureaucracy, political leadership and poor governance – although people’s own initiatives without official supports helped the country attain around 5.5 per cent growth.
‘The current growth is [result of] an automatic process but we don’t see strategies from the policymakers to leapfrog economic advancement,’ Zillur, a former adviser to the interim government, said.
The Economic Reporters’ Forum organised the discussion on ‘Budget 2010-11 : Seen Through different Windows’ at National Press Club, which was presided over by its president Monowar Hossain.
The food and disaster management minister, Mohammad Abdur Razzaque, described the 6.7 per cent growth forecast as ‘not abnormal’ but admitted that there were stumbling blocks, especially power crisis.
‘If we fail to implement the budget, it would be a failure of the political leadership and bureaucracy,’ he said in an apparent response to statement by Enam Ahmed Chaudhury, a former bureaucrat and adviser to the BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia.
Chaudhury described the finance minister’s budgetary goals, especially economic growth forecast, as ‘audacity of hope’, a ‘daydream’ and an unrealistic projection.
‘If our public administration is the main problem of budget implementation, it must be restructured and reformed to attain the development goals, including projected growth,’ said Yussuf Abdullah Harun, a former Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry president, affiliated with the ruling Awami League.
When asked about sources of growth, he too acknowledged the uncertainties such as power shortage and slower investment, slower demand in the export market and lack of adequate confidence. ‘It may take some time for attaining a higher growth,’ he said.
Enam Ahmed Chaudhury urged the government to refrain from politicising the bureaucracy for the sake of its impartiality and efficient and effective functioning to carry out the government’s development programmes.
He further emphasised the need for a political dialogue for preparation of development policies such as five-year plan and 10-year perspective plan in view of the possibility of changeover in power in a democracy during the implementation period.
‘A political dialogue is essential for ownership of plans. A CPD-made [Centre for Policy Dialogue] plan or one-party programme cannot be the tool for economic emancipation of the people,’ Chaudhury said.
Dwelling on prevalence of malnutrition, Hossain Zillur said 50 per cent of the people still could not take milk every week. ‘The face of poverty has been changed; it is the concern of poor nutrition,’ he pointed out.
He pointed out that farmers could not sell their milk due to lack of demand and poor purchasing power of the common people.

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